According to threehundredeight.com,  Barrie is poised on a knife edge for the upcoming provincial election.  The leading candidate is predicted to get 39.2% of the vote, the next candidate, 39.1%.  In other words, we’re the tightest race in Ontario.  For once, I’m genuinely living in a swing riding.

In 2011 the election was decided here by 2,500 votes.  I suspect this time round it will be much closer.  My vote, and the votes of my fellow residences,  may actually make a significant difference to the local and provincial political scene this year.

But despite it being such a tight race, so far none of the candidates feel like engaging with me on Twitter.  Maybe I should just vote for the first one who replies to me; on the principal that at least it indicates that they understand something about technology; and as a software architect I might want to be represented by somebody who understands my field?

Or maybe not.  I still feel that it’s important to select candidates based on their qualifications, competence and integrity.  Less so on their promises;  I think of electoral promises and manifestoes as interesting works of fiction.  Candidates love to promise more jobs and  economic growth, but I suspect that government has far less power over these matters than most MPs would be willing to admit.  Politicians are quick to claim responsibility for improved unemployment numbers, or an uptick in GDP; but the same politicians in times of recession will be quick to point out that the poor economic news is due to factors beyond their control: inflation, foreign exchange, trade deficits, climate.

The problem is: economics is an inexact science.  It’s very good at providing a narrative explanation for why things happened in the past; it’s far less good at producing predictive power for the future.   Before becoming he Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Gordon Brown famously promised to bring an end to the cycle of “boom and bust.”  He then presided over the biggest financial crisis in three generations.

So I’m cautious of politician’s promises to increase jobs or reduce debt.  because their ability to affect these matters is probably less than they think.   But I do care about how they will handle the responsibilities that they have been entrusted with.  And I believe that the best way to predict future performance is to look at past performance.  A wise man once said, ” Whoever can be trusted with very little can also be trusted with a lot. Whoever is dishonest with very little is dishonest with a lot.”

So when you come to make your choice, ask yourself – ‘what has this candidate done in the past?  How well have they acquitted themselves of the responsibilities they’ve been given? ‘

And if you can’t come up with good answers for those questions, vote for somebody else.